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III. The long view: Đề thi thật IELTS READING (IELTS Reading Recent Actual Test)
READING PASSAGE 3
You should spend about 20 minutes on Questions 27-40, which are based on Reading Passage 3 on pages 9 and 10.
The long view
Climate change, moon bases, cybercrime: we all know the predictions, but how are they made? One expert explains the science of futurology
The business of predicting the future has a long history. Several millennia ago in ancient Greece, people would consult Apollo, the god of prophecy, to learn if fortune favoured their chosen course of action. The tradition has changed considerably since then. Today, futurology is a science that drives a thriving business—its three main consumers being the military, big business and national governments. Modern futurists do not predict that a certain event will occur at a particular time. Instead they look at what is happening now to see what this may lead to further down the line. Alternatively, they start with a desired result and work out how people and organisations can be manoeuvred into realising that ambition.
The oil company Shell has been one of the major producers of future studies. It recently published a comprehensive study looking at how people may live in 2020 and 2050, given the type of energy which is purchased. Philip Watts from Shell says, 'This is not an exercise in prophecy. Rather it is designed to challenge our thinking so that we can make better choices in today’s business world.'
The short-term attitudes and bureaucracy of many governments can be frustrating to futurists, but this mutual wariness is slowly changing. The Scottish Parliament recently hosted a conference of 150 futurists from across the globe. The parliament is setting up a forum to look at where Scotland is heading in the next 20 years. Among the issues are demographics and economic competition within Europe and with Asia. It’s a first for the United Kingdom, although not for Europe—this strategy has already been put into practice in Finland.
Eamonn Kelly, head of the San Francisco-based Global Business Network futurist group, was one of those who attended the conference. According to Kelly, 'There are many different tools a futurist can employ but essentially there are three main ingredients. First, there is the “science”, which can encompass everything from environmental studies to psychology. Then, there is the “craft”, which may include interviews and the creation of maps of cause and effect. Finally, there is the “art”, the intuitive ability to meld all this into a coherent whole.
Dr James Canton is founder of the San Francisco-based Institute for Global Futures and has been an adviser to leading US companies. Like many futurists he started in the private sector but is also comfortable in academia and has an urge to change things for the better. 'A futurist is an alchemist who mixes thequalitative,' he says. 'He needs intuition and has to work with people from a range of academic backgrounds gathering primary evidence about what motivates people. Futurists are constantly discussing ideas with their peers, but they do not simply surf the net picking up on the latest fad.'
New Zealand futurist Robin Gunston says, 'I don’t believe you can train yourself to become a futurist. A certain amount of this is to do with how your brain is hard-wired and we know this is difficult to change. Futurology requires extensive life experience and a broad education to test theories against. Much of modern teenage culture is about me, what I want and what the world owes me—that does not make it easy to see different kinds of futures and pose the hard questions about how we will get there.'
Those best able to respond to futurists are the most agile. 'Large corporations beholden to shareholders and governments burdened by bureaucracy are often simply too slow. Asian companies tend to be better prepared because they take a longer perspective. Sony, for example, is very forward looking,' Canton says. 'There will be sunset and sunrise nations and corporations, in terms of prosperity in the 21st century. The winners will be those corporations and governments which conduct future studies and take steps to become future-proofed.'
According to Alan Beckley, a former West Mercia chief inspector and past president of the Police Futurists International (PFI), getting public bodies in the UK future-proofed could be a long process. 'People are concerned about the methodology and the reliability of future studies,' he says. 'They are more likely to follow their political masters than go to them and say, “We have done this scenario, and this is what we should do”.' However, as the Scottish Parliament has shown, there are a few examples of government exercises. Also, in 2003 Britain’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) published for the first time its strategic thinking for the next decade. This document was drawn up with the help of in-house and outside futurists. FCO minister Bill Rammell says, 'We do occasionally look further ahead than the next ten years on issues such as demographics. But the period chosen for the strategy was deliberately a decade. Even assumptions about technology get very shaky beyond that.'
American futurist Steve Brant stresses the importance of remembering that the road ahead has yet to be chosen. 'People can create the future they want using various points of leverage,' he says. 'We have much more influence over what the future will be like than many of us realise.' Futurists used to be like firefighters—they tried to work out what to do if things went wrong. Now, the aim of this profession is to imagine the best possible future for society and start creating it today.
Questions 27-33
Look at the following statements (Questions 27-33) and the list of people below.
Match each statement with the correct person, A-F.
Write the correct letter, A-F, in boxes 27-33 on your answer sheet.
NB You may use any letter more than once
27 Flexible organisations are in a better position to make use of futurology
28 Predictions about any period beyond the next ten years cannot be trusted
29 Only certain people are suited to becoming futurists
30 Future studies are designed to inform current commercial decisions
31 Futurology involves a broad exchange of information but is not influenced by every new idea
32 People are not aware of the extent to which they can determine the future
33 A lack of confidence in futurology affects how widely it is used
List of People A Philip Watts B Dr James Canton C Robin Gunston D Alan Beckley E Bill Rammell |
Questions 34-37
Complete the sentences below.
Choose NO MORE THAN TWO WORDS from the passage for each answer.
Write your answers in boxes 34-37 on your answer sheet.
34 A report by Shell considered the impact of various kinds of ________ on future lifestyles.
35 The Scottish parliament has decided to use futurists to advise on ________ from Asian and other European countries.
36 Dr James Canton is similar to other futurists in that he began his career in the ________
37 Britain’s FCO sometimes studies developments in areas like ________ beyond 10 years
Questions 38-40
Choose THREE letters A-G
Write the correct letters in boxes 38-40 on your answer sheet.
Which THREE of the following statements are true according to the passage?
A Present-day futurology can focus on achieving a particular outcome
B Futurists recognise that most governments have already made long-term plans
C The world’s first futurology conference was hosted by Finland.
D Futurists need to talk to people from various areas of expertise.
E Futurists should carry out internet research to keep up with popular trends.
F Aspects of modern culture prepare people well for a career in futurology.
G Conducting future studies can affect whether a company continues to be successful.
IV. Dịch bài đọc The long view
V. Giải thích từ vựng The long view
VI. Giải thích cấu trúc ngữ pháp khó The long view
VII. Đáp án The long view
Questions 27–33:
27. B
28. E
29. C
30. A
31. B
32. F
33. D
Questions 34–37:
34. energy
35. economic competition
36. private sector
37. demographics
Questions 38–40:
A, D, G
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